Early on Sunday morning, 25 June 2006, Gilad Shalit was captured by Palestinian militants who ambushed an Israeli army post on the Israeli side of the southern Gaza Strip border. He was abducted through the Kerem Shalom crossing (in Israel) and has been held as a prisoner in the Gaza Strip by Hamas ever since. Hamas has refused requests from the International Committee of the Red Cross to allow visits which is contrary to international humanitarian law. In return for Gilad's release, Hamas is demanding the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel, among them many convicted murderers who have killed Israeli men, women and children in terror attacks.
If it were possible Israel would probably have already launched a military rescue operation to release Shalit. The fact that such a rescue attempt hasn't yet taken place might indicate that the exact location of Shalit in the Gaza Strip is either unknown to the Israeli army (his captives are probably moving him from place to place to prevent exposure) and/or that the physical location and conditions of the place where Shalit is being held means only a slim chance of a successive rescue operation. Such difficulties can be the result of both the physical location of the "prison", such as being inside a crowded Palestinian population which is likely to be supportive towards the kidnappers and alert them to any suspicious military activity in the area. Operational complications can also derive from direct obstacles laid by the kidnappers such as mining all the entrances to the "prison", heavily guarded routines and heavy bulletproof metal barriers which make any rescue attempt very difficult to gain the surprise advantage. A similar situation involving another Israeli soldier captured by Hamas occurred in 1994 when Nachshon Wachsman, a 19-year-old soldier from Jerusalem, was kidnapped. In this case even though the Israeli intelligence succeeded in locating the exact place where Wachsman was being held, the operational rescue failed and Wachsman was killed by his Hamas captives during the IDF rescue attempt (due to operational obstacles mentioned above). It seems at least for now that the only option available to the Israeli government for the releasing of Gilad Shalit is through a prisoner exchange with Hamas. But a difficult moral dilemma arises: how much should Israel "pay" for this release of one of its soldiers? Hamas demands the release of one thousand convicted terrorists. A refusal to accept Hamas' demands might lead to the "disappearance" of Shalit like in the 1986 case of Ron Arad whose location is still unknown to this very day. Furthermore, Israeli society, which sends most of its sons and daughters to military service, is very sensitive to the pain of Gilad Shalit and his family and failure to get Shalit released might lead to a severe political crisis and lack of trust in the government. It can also have problematic implications on the morale of Israeli soldiers who could face the same danger in the future and therefore might be concerned that the government will abandon them like it 'abandoned' Shalit. What does it say about Israeli society? Is the saying "All Israel is responsible for one another" ('kol Israel arevim ze la ze') still valid?
On the other hand, the release of 1,000 terrorists, many of whom are responsible for the murder of a large number of Israeli civilians (including many women and children), would strongly upset many of the families of the victims that want justice to be done. Furthermore, if released, many of those terrorists are likely to continue launching deadly terror attacks on innocent civilians and cause the death and injuries of dozens or even hundreds of people. An additional important point to consider is the motivation for further kidnap attempts by Hamas which might increase substantially as a result of the dramatic success of releasing 1,000 prisoners. A mass release of Hamas' terrorists is also likely to increase their political support among the Palestinians and simultaneously decrease the legitimacy of moderate political movements such as Fatah.
Those dilemmas are on the table of the Israeli Prime Minister who needs to decide this matter. Each decision will bring some positive and some negative results. This might explain why the decision is being delayed for so long and why the negotiations with Hamas (through German and Egyptian mediators) are still going on. Should Israel not find a different last-minute solution, it would likely accept most of Hamas' demands. Nevertheless Israel will try to create two main terms for the exchange. Firstly, most of the senior terrorists will be released abroad or to Gaza, rather than to the West Bank which is relatively clean from terror activity and Israel would like to keep it that way. Secondly, Israel would ask that some of the most dangerous prisoners that Hamas is demanding to be released will be exchanged for less dangerous ones. If that happened, hopefully Gilad Shalit will be released.
