Hostage talks enter crucial phase as Netanyahu arrives in US via BICom

Netanyahu in the US: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in the US yesterday, ahead of his address to Congress tomorrow.

• Before his departure, Netanyahu told reports he was leaving “at a time when Israel is fighting on seven fronts… I will seek to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important for Israel,” he continued. “And I will tell my friends on both sides of the aisle that regardless who the American people choose as their next President, Israel remains America's indispensable and strong ally in the Middle East.”
• On arrival, Netanyahu met with hostage families, alongside his wife Sara and Israeli government representative on hostages Gal Hirsch.
• Of the pursuit of a hostage deal, Netanyahu said “We are determined to get everyone back. The conditions for getting them back are ripening thanks to the simple reason that we are exerting very-very strong  pressure on Hamas. We’ve seen a certain change, and I think that change will gradually increase… Regarding a deal, the conditions are gradually ripening, without doubt. That is a good sign, and the other sign that we have seen is that the enemy’s spirit is beginning to break.”
• Israel negotiators have been continuing lengthy and intense negotiations with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. A formal Israeli proposal is set to be delivered in Qatar on Thursday.
• The IDF also announced yesterday that two more hostages, Alex Dancyg and Yagev Buchshtab, are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas. The circumstances of their death in Hamas captivity are being investigated. Yagev Buchshtab was a 34-year-old from Kibbutz Nirim. He was abducted together with his wife, Rimon, who was released in November as part of the first hostage release agreement. Dancyg, was 75, from Nir Oz. Born in Poland, he was a renowned Holocaust educator at Yad Vashem. 

Gaza Strip:  The IDF continues to operate in various parts of the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Yunis and Rafah

• The IDF deemed it necessary to return to Khan Younis to thwart Hamas efforts to reconstitute some of their fighting capacity. On Monday night, two additional IDF brigades were sent to the city. Tanks entered the eastern part of the city, after first informing local residents on the eastern edges of the humanitarian zone to leave and to head further to the west. The IDF reports that over 30 terrorist targets have since been attacked in Khan Younis.
• In the Rafah area, according to the IDF they continue their “precise, intelligence-based operational activity.” This includes killing “dozens of terrorists in close-quarters encounters, with support from the IAF.”
• This included Muhammad Abu Seidu, “a Nukhba terrorist who participated in the invasion into Israel on October 7th and directed multiple attacks against IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.”
• Also in central Gaza, the IDF confirmed that “over the past day, the forces have eliminated numerous terrorists.” In addition, the Israeli Air Force “struck approximately 35 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures, terrorists and other terror infrastructure sites.”
• In Rafah, the IDF announced that the Nahal Brigade who have been operating there for about two months have, “eliminated over 150 terrorists who posed a threat to the troops and located approximately 400 different weapons.” Operating in four separate sectors:
  • “In the south of the 'Brazil' area, the troops destroyed a significant underground tunnel route hundreds of metres long that included several floors and levels.”
  • “In the north of the 'Yibna' refugee camp, the troops carried out a targeted operation during which they eliminated terrorists and located weapon storage facilities in the area.”
  • “In the centre of the 'Brazil' area and the 'Alshaboura' refugee camp, the troops deepened the operational achievement and located: workshops both above and below the ground, rockets in sensitive locations and tunnel shafts leading to terror tunnels.”
  • “In their most recent operation, the troops raided a school near the humanitarian route where armed terrorists who tried to take over the route were entrenched… In the school yard, they located an operational tunnel shaft used by the terrorists.”
• On the Gaza periphery, there was an attempted stabbing attack on Monday at the entrance of Netiv Haasara. The assailant pulled up in a rental car, exited the vehicle and threatened members of the community’s security team with a knife, before he was shot. The terrorist was later identified as a Muslim Canadian that had arrived in Israel posing as a tourist the day before.     
• It’s now been 291 days since the hostages were abducted. According to official Israeli data of the 120 hostages still in captivity, 46 are no longer alive, at least 13 were killed since the first hostages were released at end of last year. Of the 74 presumed still alive, 2 are children, 12 are women, including 5 female soldiers. Of the 60 men, six are over the age of 60.

Context: Netanyahu arrives in the US at a time of extraordinary American political upheaval and is likely to find the US political establishment concerned primarily with domestic matters.

• With Biden freed of the burden of re-election, there is much speculation on what his policies and attitude towards Israel and its war in Gaza will be during his remaining tenure. His administration has expressed deep frustration with Netanyahu’s right and far-right coalition, and shown itself willing to impose sanctions on West Bank settlers, and may look for further opportunities to do so.
• Netanyahu will recognise the sensitivity of the American political climate he is entering and is thought likely to focus his address to congress on consensual, bipartisan aspects of the US-Israeli relationship.
• After his withdrawal from the presidential race, in a message to his campaign base, Biden said that during his remaining time in office, “I’ll be working very closely with the Israelis and with the Palestinians to try to work out how we can get the Gaza war to end, and Middle East peace, and get all those hostages home.”
• Hostage negotiations have continued under the broad framework of what became known as the “Biden proposal”, despite its originating in Israel. The two areas of greatest concern in recent weeks have related to Hamas’s demands that Israel vacate the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and that northern Gazans displaced by the war be allowed to return north. Israel has maintained that some kind of presence in the corridor is essential to prevent the resumption of weapons smuggling into Gaza through Egypt, and that mechanisms must be in place to prevent Hamas fighters moving north along with the civilian population.
• It is highly likely that Hamas will instinctively resist the solutions Israeli delegates will propose on these issues. However, there is hope that the combination of the pressure Israel has brought to bear on the organisation through its military campaign and diplomatic pressure from Qatar and Egypt will persuade Hamas leaders that this is the best deal it can expect.

Looking ahead: This is a particularly crucial moment for the hostages and for hostage negotiations, as, with the election approaching, the US will have reduced diplomatic capacity to devote to the issue.

• Netanyahu will address both houses of congress tomorrow, with some Democratic figures expected to boycott.
• Despite a meeting with President Biden at one stage looking unlikely due to his Covid diagnosis, the two are expected to meet on Thursday. Before his departure, Netanyahu said that this would be “an opportunity to thank him for the things he did for Israel in the war and during his long and distinguished career in public service, as Senator, as Vice President, and as President.”
• “It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the critical months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries: Achieving the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the terror axis of Iran and its proxies, and ensuring that all Israel citizens return safely to their homes in the north and in the south.”
• Netanyahu is also set to meet with Harris during his visit.
• He is due to fly back to Israel on Friday, but is thought to be prepared to extend his stay to enable a meeting with Trump