Iranian escalation looms against backdrop of resuming hostage release and ceasefire talks via BICom

What’s happened: Iran has rejected calls from British, French, and German leaders to refrain from attacking Israel against the backdrop of hostage release and ceasefire negotiations resuming in Doha.

• In a call with the British Prime Minister, Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed his country’s right to retaliation against Israel which is being considered as a response to Ismail Haniyeh’s recent assassination in Tehran.
• This comes against the backdrop of indirect hostage release and ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas which are due to resume tomorrow in Doha. Hamas has stated that they will not be sending representatives to these negotiations, but their presence in Qatar should not preclude their participation should they so desire.
• Kan Radio reports that US President Biden said he believed it would be difficult to obtain a ceasefire under the current conditions, and Secretary of State Blinken has postponed a visit to the region that was scheduled to begin today.
• The IDF has also recently conducted brigade-level exercises in the north, potentially in preparation for combat in enemy territory. A number of special forces units have also reportedly been deployed in the north to prevent terrorist incursions. IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: ‘We take the declarations and statements of our enemies seriously. Therefore, we are prepared at peak readiness in offense and defence."
• During a visit to a northern IDF base, Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant said: “We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any possible threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options”.
• Hezbollah has fired dozens of rockets from Lebanon at Mount Meron and the Upper Galilee. No injuries were reported, and projectiles were either intercepted or fell in open areas. The Israeli Air Force has responded by striking Hezbollah positions in Kafr Kila in southern Lebanon.
• Hamas has claimed that one male Israeli hostage has been killed in an unspecified incident, and that two female hostages were also severely injured. The hostages have not been named, and the IDF has responded by saying “at this stage, we do not have any intelligence that allows us to refute or confirm the claims of Hamas…We are continuing to check and investigate the credibility of the statement, and will update as soon as possible with any information we have”. This is the first time Hamas has stated that its members have killed hostages, having previously attributed their deaths to Israeli airstrikes.
• Hamas have also fired rockets at Tel Aviv for the first time since May. According to the IDF, two rockets were fired. One fell short in the Gaza Strip, and the other landed in the sea off the coast of Tel Aviv. These rockets were fired from Khan Yunis which the IDF has now ordered to be partially evacuated, likely in preparation for imminent military operations.

 Context: Israel remains on high alert from a possible attack from Iran and it proxies, while efforts to revive hostage release and ceasefire negotiations in Qatar are due to restart tomorrow.

• Hamas says it will not attend cease-fire negotiations that were scheduled for Thursday, accusing Israel of only using the sessions to prolong the war, and has accused Israel of adding new conditions to the May 27^th proposal. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office has responded asserting these accusations are false, and that “in fact, Hamas is the one that demanded 29 changes to the May 27 proposal, something the Prime Minister refused to do”.
• The Prime Minister’s statement specifies the following as outstanding issues of contention:
  • Only allowing unarmed civilians to pass through the Netzarim Crossing between northern and southern Gaza.
  • The number of living Israeli hostages that will be released.
  • The manner in which Palestinian prisoners will be released.
• Yesterday, a total of 169 trucks carrying humanitarian aid were transferred to the Gaza Strip. According to COGAT there are over 600 trucks worth waiting to be collected from the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom crossing.
• The IDF also continues to conduct counter-terror operations in the West Bank, recently focusing on Tubas and Tuman close to Nablus. Five Palestinian terrorists are reported to have been killed in an exchange of fire with the IDF in Tubas, while a drone strike took place on targets in Tuman.
• A Liberian-flagged oil tanker has come under repeated attack in the Red Sea, including by an unmanned boat carrying an explosive device. Although no group has claimed responsibility, this attack is believed to have been carried out by the Yemeni Houthis.
• Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, has visited the Temple Mount while claiming “our policy is to enable Jewish prayer”. The current fragile status quo agreement only allows for Muslim worship on the Mount, and the Prime Minister’s Office insisted that there were no changes to it. The US has condemned this call, and was joined the UN, EU, Jordan, Egypt, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and others. 

Looking ahead: While previously expected to directly attack Israel in response to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran has now indicated that it may refrain from doing so if a ceasefire can be reached with Hamas following this week’s negotiations which are due to start tomorrow in Doha. 

• Visiting Beirut, US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein has said that he believes a war between Israel and Hezbollah can be averted as part of a concerted effort to prevent the outbreak of a regional conflict.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has authorised a deal to supply Israel with F-15 planes and ammunition worth over $20 billion in the face of an imminent Iranian and Hezbollah attack. The ammunition will be delivered immediately, with planes due in a few years from the deal being finalised.