Israel’s security cabinet discuss a hostage deal as tension continues in the north via BICom

Israel’s security cabinet discuss a hostage deal as tension continues in the north 

Members of the Israeli negotiating team have met with security cabinet ministers to relay the central issues regarding a deal to release the hostages. 

• Security officials said there was “not a bad chance” of concluding a deal because Hamas is at a “difficult point.” They spoke about the urgency of engaging in negotiations quickly because the talks would “take a few weeks.” 
• Hebrew media reported yesterday that Mossad chief David Barnea told the security cabinet that young female hostages don’t have time to wait for a new hostage deal framework. 
• One issue that needs to be decided on relates to how to prevent Hamas terrorists returning to northern Gaza. The current proposal says that only Palestinians moving to northern Gaza will do so “without carrying arms while returning,” but doesn’t specify how that will be ensured.  
• Another issue relates to how to secure the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt.  
• Defence Minister Gallant reportedly warned there was little likelihood the sides could reach an agreement over an apparatus to monitor Palestinians travelling back north. Gallant also argued that Israel would be able to prevent smuggling under the Egypt-Gaza border using monitoring equipment (rather than Israeli control on the ground).  
• He is also reported to have said that if a deal isn’t reached in the next two weeks, the abductees’ fate will be “sealed.”  
• On Wednesday, an Israeli delegation arrived in Egypt to continue ceasefire talks. 

Negotiations context: The current proposal being discussed aligns with the broad outline of what has become known as the ‘Biden Plan’, despite it originating from Israeli officials. The plan would result in a three-stage process: (for more details see this recent BICOM Morning Brief) 

• Hamas is thought to be becoming weaker, especially following Israel’s targeted killing of Rafa Salameh, the Khan Younis Brigade commander, and Hamas military wing Mohammed Deif (whose death has not been confirmed but whom Israel believes was in the compound when it was destroyed). By IDF assessments, roughly 14,000 Hamas terrorists have either been killed or taken captive in addition to the number of wounded operatives who can no longer fight, which brings the total up to more than half of Hamas’s fighting force of roughly 30,000 men. Moreover, increasing numbers of Gazans are expressing their anger towards Hamas. 
• The mediators are waiting for Israel’s answer on two issues: The return of armed men to the northern Gaza Strip and control over the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah border crossing. The IDF would reportedly prefer to maintain a military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor moving forward, but has presented at least two other options that might help counter future Hamas efforts to tunnel beneath the Gaza-Egypt border. 
• In 2005, in the lead up to Israel’s disengagement from Gaza, the IDF, Shin Bet and defence minister were fully opposed to leaving the route that runs along the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. While the prime minister, Ariel Sharon, was initially opposed a short time before the implementation of the disengagement plan, he changed his mind for fear that maintaining a presence there would make Israel responsible for the Gaza Strip, and the IDF was forced to blow up the outposts a few days before leaving. 
• The Southern Command has drawn up several plans ahead of a possible IDF withdrawal from the corridor as per Hamas’s demand in a hostage deal. These include: 
• Building an underground barrier on the Egyptian side, similar to the one on the Israeli border with Gaza as well as a joint war room.  
• Installing sensors that will alert to tunnel-digging; in response to alerts, troops will be dispatched to dispense with the threat.  
• The IDF establishing a new regional brigade for the Philadelphi Corridor area. The troops will operate on the ground in various formations and will be on the move to prevent smuggling. 
• Since taking over Gaza in 2007, Hamas has administered the Gazan side of the crossing. Since the IDF’s entry into Rafah, activity at the crossing has been halted because of disagreement over a permanent presence that is not Hamas. The United States, Egypt and Qatar want the Palestinian Authority at the crossing, but Israel’s political leadership has vetoed any involvement by Mahmoud Abbas and his men in running Gaza. 

Northern front: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to target Israeli towns that have not yet been hit if Israel continues to “target civilians.” According to Hezbollah, recent Israeli strikes in south Lebanon have caused the death of civilians including, three children. 

• Speaking at a televised address to mark the Shia holy day Ashora, Nasrallah said “Continuing to target civilians will push the Resistance to launch missiles at settlements that were not previously targeted.” 
• “If your tanks come to southern Lebanon, you will not suffer a shortage of tanks, because you will have no tanks left,” he added  
• “All that is being circulated about a finalised agreement regarding the situation on the Lebanese front is incorrect,” Nasrallah said.  
• More than 85 rockets were yesterday fired at Western Galilee, while dozens more targeted the Upper Galilee region. In Kiryat Shmona, at least seven rockets scored direct hits inside the city and some 10 projectiles were intercepted over Mt. Meron, where an Israeli Air Force monitoring base is located. 
• After touring a sector in the north and hearing a security briefing, Gallant said Israel would soon have to decide if the residents of northern Israel could return home in an arrangement, or if Israel had no choice but to launch a military operation. “For now, we are waging a limited war in the north. We are utilising a small part of the IDF’s might. In a second, we can transition from our primary effort in the south to a primary effort in the north and it will be swift and surprising. It could also be the result of an action of theirs.” 

Hezbollah Context: Hezbollah began firing missiles at northern Israel on October 8th, a day after Hamas’ attack. In the ensuing nine months launched more than 5,000 high-trajectory and direct-fire projectiles toward civilian and military targets in Israel, causing 33 civilian and military fatalities.

• The IDF believes that Hezbollah and Palestinian organisations have lost 450 fighters including 15 commanders at the level of brigade commanders or above, which comprises over 50 percent of Hezbollah’s total number of commanders in southern Lebanon.
• US and French attempts at brokering a sustainable ceasefire on the northern border failed to produce results. In mid-February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border, and dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure compliance with the buffer zone. UNIFIL peacekeeping forces would later support both sides to resume negotiations on the points on dispute on their land border. Hezbollah has maintained it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza. 

Looking ahead: In addition to making decisions on these key issues, Netanyahu faces political tension within the coalition which he will have to resolve. While far-right ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich oppose a deal to free hostages in exchange for terrorists and a ceasefire, the Shas party and some MKs within Likud support one.

• The ultra-Orthodox Shas party urged Netanyahu to ignore the threats from his far-right coalition partners and to push ahead with the deal. In a letter to Netanyahu, Shas said yesterday that the party “backs your efforts to return the hostages. We are convinced that the conditions that have been created due to the military pressure and the targeted assassinations create an appropriate moment to reach a deal that safeguards the vital security interests of Israel and brings the hostages home.”