Blinken in Israel; ceasefire talks continue via BICom
What’s happened: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel and has met with President Herzog, saying that ongoing talks “may be the last [chance]” for a hostage deal. This follows continued Hezbollah rocket and drone fire on northern Israel, and an attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv.
- As part of his ninth trip to the region since 7th October, Blinken is in Israel for meetings with the President, Prime Minister, and Defence Minister. He is expected to visit Cairo tomorrow, and has said that current talks could be the last opportunity to secure a ceasefire and hostage deal, referring to them as “a decisive moment”.
- Despite a seemingly successful initial round of negotiations in Doha and Cairo between Israeli, Egyptian, and Qatari delegates, Hamas has rejected the latest ceasefire proposal, blaming Netanyahu for “putting obstacles in the way of reaching an agreement” and setting new conditions.
- Israel’s insistence that the IDF remain deployed in the Philadelphi Corridor to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons into the Gaza Strip from Egypt is understood to be a major point of contention, and was not specified in the 27th May hostage deal proposal which has served as the basis for the subsequent talks.
- Fighting continues in the Gaza Strip, with two Israeli reservists being killed by a roadside bomb which targeted a logistics convoy in the Netzarim Corridor. They were named as Major Yotam Itzhak Peled and Sergeant Major Mordechai Yosef Ben Shoam, both of the Jerusalem Brigade’s 8119th Battalion. Elsewhere, a paratrooper was seriously wounded in an anti-tank missile strike in Khan Yunis.
- Hezbollah fire on northern Israeli communities continue with little sign of abatement. Two Israeli soldiers were wounded in a drone attack near Misgav Am on Saturday when 55 rockets were fired into Israel. The IDF has also said that it assassinated an elite Radwan Force commander in a drone strike near the city of Tyre, and struck a weapons depot in Nabatieh.
- An Israeli security guard in the West Bank settlement of Kedumim has been killed in a terrorist attack. He was hit in the head with a hammer, and the terrorist – who has not yet been apprehended – fled the scene after taking his personal weapon.
- An explosion in Tel Aviv has killed one man in an incident the Israeli Police have now confirmed was a failed suicide bombing and terrorist attack. One passerby was moderately injured, and the only fatality is the alleged terrorist who is reported to have been a Palestinian from the West Bank. Hamas have since claimed responsibility for the attack which was jointly executed with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and vowed to carry out more.
Context: The US, Qatar, and Egypt continue their intensive efforts to secure a ceasefire deal against fears that failure to do so could lead to a direct Iranian attack on Israel.
- While previous attempts to secure a hostage release and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas have all failed, the US remains optimistic with President Biden saying that an agreement was “closer than ever”. The British Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, also said the time for a ceasefire is “now” on his joint visit to Israel on Friday with his French counterpart, Stéphane Séjourné.
- Hamas has rejected this optimism, claiming it was simply an attempt to “keep everything sounding positive in the media…[and] keep the Axis of Resistance calm and to stop it responding to the assassination and not slip into a regional war”.
- It is also likely that the Netzarim Corridor’s status will prove challenging to overcome if these negotiations progress. Hamas’s position is that Israel should withdraw from the Corridor which bisects the coastal enclave, which would allow its personnel free access between Gaza City and southern cities such as Khan Yunis and Rafah. This would not be acceptable to Israel, who view their control of the Corridor as a critical means to prevent terrorists’ freedom of movement within the Gaza.
- Iran is still refraining from striking Israel in retaliation to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, and a US official has warned that it would face “cataclysmic” consequences and derail momentum toward a Gaza truce if it did so.
Looking ahead: Negotiations continue in the hope that a ceasefire can be reached and an Iranian strike on Israel can be averted.
- The US Ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. A senior Iranian security official said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack on Israel if the Gaza talks fail.
- The US has indicated that it aims to hold a second summit later this week and hopes to finalise a deal by the end of the week. Significant disagreements beyond the scope of 27th May framework must be bridged first, though.
The Palestinian Authority is reportedly garnering international support for its President, Mahmoud Abbas, to visit the Gaza Strip with a high-level delegation following his recent pledge to do so in a speech in Turkey’s parliament last week. This trip’s purpose would be to express solidarity with the people of Gaza, as well as assert the PA and PLO’s authority over the coastal enclave. No date has been given for this planned visit, and it is unclear how the delegation would be able to enter the Gaza Strip
