Further escalation in northern Israel and Lebanon

What happened: Over the weekend Hezbollah expanded the scale of fire to 50km from the Lebanon border, placing 1.5 million Israelis with its range of missiles.

• Over Saturday night and Sunday, Hezbollah fired around 150 rockets with the vast majority being intercepted. Hezbollah announced they were targeting the Ramat David airbase and a weapons development factory north of Haifa, but neither of those sites were hit. 
• Sirens were sounded in Haifa, the Jezreel Valley, Acre, the Lower Galilee and the Upper Galilee. Most rockets were intercepted, but several landed in Tzur Shalom, Moreshet and Kiryat Bialik.
• One rocket, carrying a warhead of dozens of kilograms of explosives, landed between two residential buildings in Kiryat Bialik. The explosion caused widespread damage to apartments and parked cars, some of which went up in flames. Three residents were wounded, with one hospitalised in moderate condition and two in light condition.
• Another rocket landed outside a house in Moshav Moreshet in the Lower Galilee. The explosion caused extensive property damage, but without causing injuries. A moshav spokesperson, told Army Radio, “We had a big miracle here. Two impacts, two missiles, directly struck two buildings. Thank God, we escaped. No one was injured. Everyone was able to get out of their homes. The bomb shelters literally saved people’s lives. People went into the bomb shelters and, thanks to that, weren’t wounded.”
• In many cases this was the first time these areas had been targeted since the war began.
• Israel also successfully intercepted drones and cruise missiles fired from Iraq. 
• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has increased its intensity striking Hezbollah targets, including thousands of launcher barrels, weapons storehouses, drone and rocket production sites as well as staging grounds used by the Radwan Force near the Israeli border.
• Since last Tuesday, the IAF has struck 700 Hezbollah targets in total, with 330 of them hit on Sunday.
• On Friday the IAF targeted an underground stronghold in Beirut in which they eliminated over a dozen Hezbollah commanders, including Ibrahim Aqil, head of operations and commander of the Radwan Force.
• Among the other commanders eliminated: the head of the Radwan Force training unit and a former commander of the Radwan Force for a decade; Chief of Staff of the Radwan Force also responsible for the transfer of weapons; the Hezbollah commander responsible for Radwan Force operations; the Hezbollah commander of the coastal area; the Commander of the Qana area; the commander of the Ramim ridge area; the commander of the Al-Khiam area; and the commander of the Mount Dov / Sheba Farms area.
• According to the IDF, “these commanders had been leading and planning the Radwan Force's attack and infiltration plan into Israeli territory for years.”

Context: Israel is looking to press home its military advantage following the successful targeting of Hezbollah operatives via their electronic communication systems last week.      

• As a result of their inability to communicate remotely, the commanders of the elite Radwan commando unit met in person in an underground site in Beirut, which presented Israel with an opportunity to strike.
• Based on precise intelligence and impressive operational capability, this strike is only the latest example of Israel’s rehabilitation following the failure in October last year.                
• Ibrahim Aqil had a long history of involvement in terror attacks, including involvement in the bombing of the US Embassy in 1983, up to the planning of the infiltration into Israel in 2023 and the attack at the Megiddo Junction. He was also the architect of the Hezbollah plan infiltrate and attack communities in the Galilee, as well as a close and personal adviser to Nasrallah.
• Israel has killed around 500 Hezbollah operatives, including 50 senior commanders over the last year.
• This latest strike has depleted Hezbollah’s military leadership, with only a couple of senior commanders still alive. Of the most senior echelon, only Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front remains.
• The last time Israel attacked Beirut was in July during the assassination of Hezbollah’s number two, chief of staff Fuad Shukr, following the murder of 12 children in Majdal Shams. This time however, Israel took the initiative to go on the offensive.
• Reports suggest this was a pre-emptive strike, as the Radwan commanders were planning to infiltrate into Israel in response to the ‘pagers attack’.
• Israel appears to be once again achieving tactical successes whilst keeping the fire relatively limited (so as not to provoke a wider conflict). At the same time, it has not yet made the strategic breakthrough that would allow displaced citizens to return to their homes in the north.
• Israel remains closely coordinated with Biden administration which understand the necessity of these strikes, but are thought to be against any action that will lead to a broader regional escalation.
• Hezbollah’s patron Iran is also thought to be against a wider war that will necessitate the use of Hezbollah’s longer range precision guided missiles. Iran is keen to hold onto them for the protection of their nuclear programme.        

Looking ahead: Israel is currently on peak alert. IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Bar confirmed that the air force is “at the highest state of alert possible.”

• In an effort to break the deadlock Israel has completed preparations for a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, but unclear if or when such an order will be given.
• IDF Northern Command has been pushing for such an operation, but the political leadership is still deliberating.
• In the meantime Israel is expected to continue efforts to strip Hezbollah of its assets both in terms of personnel and weapons.