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What’s happened: Israel’s Security Cabinet has designated the return of internally displaced northern residents an official war goal as Gallant tells special US envoy only “military” action can allow them to return home.
- The Prime Minister’s Office has released a statement confirming that the Security Cabinet has updated its war goals for Operation Swords of Iron to include a fourth objective: “The safe return of the residents of the north to their homes”.
- Thus far, Israel’s stated war aims have been to eliminate Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, return all hostages, and ensure that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a threat to Israel. This statement marks their first delineation of a strategic goal in the northern theatre.
- This announcement comes following a meeting between Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and US Envoy Hochstein. While the Biden Administration and Hochstein have consistently advocated for a diplomatic solution to de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah, Gallant confirmed to Hochstein that time had run out for negotiations and that a military operation was the only remaining option.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed this view in a subsequent meeting with Hochstein making it very clear that “that it will not be possible to return our residents without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north”.
Context: Since 8th October, Hezbollah has launched near daily attacks on northern Israel with drones, rockets, and anti-tank guided missiles.
- These attacks have killed 26 civilians, 20 soldiers, and forced the displacement of 80,000 residents living living in 28 evacuated localities and the city of Kiryat Shmona close to the Lebanese border.
- Data from mid-May showed that approximately 930 homes within a 9 kilometre range from the border have been damaged. Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority estimates that approximately 140,000 dunams have been damaged by fires from Hezbollah missiles since the beginning of 2024.
- The IDF has sought to downgrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and its rocket and missile-firing capabilities. In this context, it has carried out airstrikes along the Iraqi-Syrian border and the Syrian-Lebanese border to destroy Hezbollah air defence systems. However, while Israel has pushed most of Hezbollah’s special operations forces away from the border, they have ultimately failed to prevent it from continuing to fire on Israel.
- With little to no sign of these attacks abating, the prospect of an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon is becoming increasingly likely. It has also been reported that the IDF is considering establishing and occupying a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
- In November 2023, Hezbollah unilaterally honoured a brief ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas and subsequently indicated that it would do so again if another deal was reached.
- In February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been achieved in Gaza.
- However, with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire becoming ever more elusive, so too is the prospect of a de-escalation with Hezbollah despite France and the US’s efforts to encourage a diplomatic solution.
Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly intends to fire Defence Minister Gallant and replace him with former Likud ally and current Chair of the New Hope party, Gideon Saar.
- Rumours of Gallant’s impending dismissal have circulated for months. While Saar initially rejected rumours he would consider joining the Netanyahu government – he has campaigned against Netanyahu since forming his own right wing party in December 2020 – he is now thought to be open to joining the coalition and being appointed Defence Minister.
- Gallant and Netanyahu’s relationship has been tense since March 2023 when Gallant urged a slow down of the government’s judicial reform and Netanyahu fired him (and intense public pressure led to Netanyahu backtracking).
- More recent differences between the two men have included opposing a bill aimed at enlisting ultra-Orthodox men, the necessity of a ceasefire deal with Hamas, and the importance of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border.
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