BICOM Background Briefing: Hezbollah fires major salvoes on northern Israel as ceasefire talks falter 

via BICom

Hezbollah fires major salvoes on northern Israel as ceasefire talks falter 

What’s happened: Hezbollah launched a salvo of over 50 rockets at the Golan Heights this morning as ceasefire talks falter with little sign of a hoped for breakthrough. Shortly after, Hezbollah launched several drones in the same direction.

• While most were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system, some hit the town of Katzrin causing significant damage to a number of homes and injuring one Israeli citizen.
• Hezbollah has taken responsibility for these attacks, saying that they were targeting an IDF base and responding to overnight Israeli airstrikes in eastern Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley. The IDF says that this airstrike was targeting a Hezbollah arms depot.
• Yesterday, Hezbollah fired 115 rockets and drones into Israel while a drone attack on Monday killed one Israeli soldier. While yesterday’s larger barrage did not cause any deaths or injuries, rocket impacts did spark fires in open areas causing significant damage.
• For the first time since October 7th, an Israeli strike in Lebanon killed a Fatah official, the Palestinian group claimed, informing AFP that the strike hit the car of official Khalil Makdah in the southern city of Sidon.
• These attacks come as US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, leaves the Middle East after his ninth visit since 7^th October without making significant progress towards a much hoped for ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Although Israel has accepted the US bridging proposal, Hamas has rejected it claiming that it is an American attempt to buy time “for Israel to continue its genocide”, and urged a return to the previous proposal.
• Secretary of State Blinken has urged both sides to show “maximum flexibility” while an unnamed US official criticised Prime Minister Netanyahu for “maximalist” remarks about maintaining control of the Gaza-Egypt border. The Prime Minister has insisted that Israeli troops remain in the strategic Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors in the southern and central Gaza Strip.
• An unnamed source in the Israeli negotiating team has also accused Netanyahu of sabotaging the talks with his Tuesday remarks saying “the Prime Minister knows that we are in a critical period during which we’re working on solutions for the Philadelphi Corridor and Netzarim ahead of the next summit…he knows there is progress — and then he puts out statements that are the opposite of what was agreed upon with the mediators”.

Context: The heightened push for a ceasefire deal comes amid the returning of six hostages' bodies to Israel yesterday. Five of the returned hostages were previously known to have died.

• The Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has said that Israel’s “centre of gravity” is gradually transitioning from the Gaza Strip to the northern front amid preparations for a major escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• In a visit to the 36^th Division in northern Israel, Gallant said: “Our centre of gravity is moving from south to north, we are in a gradual change, we have more tasks in the south, we have hostages, we need to bring them, we are negotiating on this and I believe we will succeed in reaching results, this is a very important thing…We want to return the [displaced] residents to the north, we want to return them safely. If it is possible to do this in an agreement, we will do it in an agreement”.
• The Israeli Police and Shin Bet are said to be investigating the possibility that Iran and Hezbollah were responsible for Sunday night’s attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. While Hamas and PIJ claimed responsibility, the attacker is not known to have been affiliated with either group and used a relatively sophisticated device potentially indicating Iranian or Hezbollah direction.
• Combat operations continue in the Gaza Strip, with the IDF confirming that it conducted airstrikes on 30 targets in the past day. These included buildings used by terror groups, armed terror operatives, rocket launching sites, tunnel shafts, and observation posts with fighting taking place in Rafah, Khan Yunis, and the Netzarim Corridor.

Looking ahead: In the face of troop shortages, and in preparation for potential escalation in the North, the IDF has called up approximately 15000 previously exempted and demobilised reservists.

• The reservists set to be recalled to duty are those who were released from service due to the army closing units or reducing manpower in certain units, and who are younger than the exemption age, which is 40 for most soldiers, 45 for officers, and 49 for specialists. According to Channel 12, around 170,000 such exemptions have been granted over the past 10 years resulting in significant manpower shortages.
• An IRGC spokesman has said that the wait for Iran’s retaliation against Israel for Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination “could be long”. Speaking in Tehran yesterday, Alimohammad Naini said that “time is in our favour and the waiting period for this response could be long”, and that “the enemy” should wait for a calculated and accurate response.
• Two of the border towns most impacted by Hamas’s attacks on 7^th October – Beeri and Kfar Aza – have announced that they will not participate in a centralised government organised memorial ceremony, and instead hold their own. Officials at Beeri have said “this isn’t an alternative ceremony, this is the ceremony of the community”, while representatives of Kfar Aza are reported to be “disappointed” by the government’s commemoration plans.