Hezbollah missile intercepted over Tel Aviv

What’s happened: Israel intercept a Hezbollah ballistic missile at Tel Aviv, as Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon continue.

• Hezbollah claims this morning’s attack on Tel Aviv was carried out using a Qadr-1 or 110, saying it targeted Mossad’s Tel Aviv headquarters in response to last week’s pager and walkie-talkie blasts.
• The missile was intercepted over central Israel and did not cause any damage or injuries.
• Additional Hezbollah rocket fire continues to target increasingly southern Israeli communities, with sirens sounding in Zichron Yaakov, Tiberias, and Netanya. 
• A drone launched from Lebanon struck near the Israeli Navy base at Atlit, causing slight damage. Two of the three drones were intercepted, with one being able to reach close to its intended target. Hezbollah claimed the target was the base where Shayetet 13 (the Israeli Navy’s special-forces unit) is headquartered. This marks Hezbollah’s southernmost drone infiltration into Israel since the start of this war.
• The IDF launched a new wave of attacks in southern Lebanon and destroyed the launcher that was used to fire on Tel Aviv this morning. Yesterday Israel launched more extensive airstrikes in what the IDF described as “as part of its bid to “remove threats to Israeli civilians and degrade Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure and capabilities in Lebanon”.
• One airstrike in the Beirut suburbs killed two officers in Hezbollah’s missile force including the Senior Commander of Hezbollah’s Precision-Rocket and Missile Division, Ibrahim Qubaisi.
• Iranian-linked Iraqi Shia militias also continue to fire drones at Israel, sounding sirens in the Golan Heights, close to Tiberias, and the Arava Desert. No injuries were caused in these attacks, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has taken responsibility for them.
• Israel’s Home Front Command expanded the areas in which schoolchildren are to attend classes remotely. The newly-included cities, towns and villages are Atlit, Isfiya, Daliyat al-Carmel, Yokneam Illit and all the communities in the Megiddo Regional Council.
• In his final speech at the UN General Assembly, President Biden reiterated how he remains committed to preventing a regional war and stressed that it is still possible to achieve a diplomatic resolution between Israel and Hezbollah that would prevent such an outcome, despite the spiralling violence in recent days. He also urged both Israel and Hamas to accept the ceasefire and hostage release deal that Washington has helped broker.
• Following a meeting by their foreign ministers on the fringes of the UN General Assembly, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq have issued a rare joint statement condemning Israel’s “aggression” against Lebanon, warning that it is “pushing the region towards all-out war”. 
• The British Defence Secretary, John Healey, was yesterday reported to have left Labour Party Conference to chair a COBRA meeting on the developing crisis in Lebanon and oversee plans to evacuate UK citizens. Approximately 700 British troops are understood to have deployed to Cyprus, and are likely to joined by more colleagues from the MoD, and FCDO, and Home Office in due course.

Context: While Israel recognises the concerns – even amongst allies – of deterioration into a wider regional conflict, the IDF continues to focus on two main strategic goals: striking Hezbollah’s missile capabilities throughout Lebanon and focusing on Hezbollah military infrastructure built over the course of 20 years, much of which is embedded within civilian homes in Shiite villages.

• In the first 48 hours of Operation Northern Arrows, the IDF struck some 1,500 targets, some deep into Lebanon in the Baalbek area, with around 2,000 munitions. The targets housed thousands of weapons, such as short- and medium-range rockets, drones that were stored in dozens of weapons depots. 
• The Qadr 1 is a medium-range ballistic missile produced in Iran which is an improved variant of the “Shahab-3” Ballistic Missile. It is equipped with a 700-1,000kg warhead. This is the first time it has been confirmed that Hezbollah is also in possession of the system.
• According to Lebanese reports, IDF attacks have killed 558 people. After Israel warned civilians to leave areas compromised by Hezbollah weaponry, tens of thousands of people have fled southern Lebanon.
• Hezbollah has significantly extended the range of its fire and has launched 300 projectiles, including drones that were fired at Atlit, and long-range missiles towards military bases in the Megiddo and Ramat David area, as well as the one towards Tel Aviv this morning.
• Israel believes the damage suffered by Hezbollah over the last week to be extensive. Defence Minister Gallant said “Hezbollah today is not the [same] Hezbollah from a week ago. The series of blows that it has taken in command and control, in weapons – all of those are very painful blows, and we have additional blows that we are ready to strike.” 
• The government has been at pains to distinguish between Hezbollah and Lebanese civilians. PM Netanyahu yesterday emphasised “I say to the people of Lebanon: Our war is not with you. Our war is with Hezbollah. Nasrallah is leading you to the brink of the abyss…Free yourselves of Hezbollah’s embrace; free yourselves of Nasrallah’s embrace—for your own sake.”

Looking ahead: Israel continues to consider a ground offensive in southern Lebanon, while reportedly requesting from the US to warn Iran against intervening in this conflict. 

• If Hezbollah fires more missiles at central Israel, the IDF may expand its range of targets.
• PM Netanyahu has delayed his flight to New York by 24 hours and is due to deliver his speech at the UN General Assembly on Friday.