Houthis fire missile at Tel Aviv

What’s happened: The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at central Tel Aviv, as Israel’s north continues to suffer missile attacks.

• At around 6.30 am Sunday morning, the Houthis fired a surface-to-surface ballistic missile from Yemen towards Israel.  
• Sirens were heard in the southern parts of the Tel Aviv metropolitan area and around the Ben Gurion International Airport. Nine people were lightly wounded while running to safe rooms following the sirens.
• A Houthi spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said the group employed a ‘new hypersonic ballistic missile’ in a ‘specific military operation’ targeting the Tel Aviv area.
• The missile traveled a distance of roughly 2,000 kilometers over the course of close to 15 minutes. Several interceptor missiles were fired at the incoming missile, including by Arrow batteries - designed to deal with long-range missiles – and Iron Dome batteries - designed to intercept shrapnel from interceptor missiles.
• Pieces of shrapnel fell on a train station in the outskirts of Modiin in Rechovot and near Gezer. The IAF is investigating why the missile was not intercepted, despite the lengthy amount of time that the air-defense systems’ operators had. The IDF refuted the claim that the missile was hypersonic.
• Hamas praised the missile launch, vowing that Israel ‘will not enjoy security unless it ceases its brutal aggression against our people in the Gaza Strip’.
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Houthis will pay ‘heavy price’ for attacking Israel. Discussing the linkage between the multiple fronts Israel is facing, Netanyahu said that “anyone who attacks us will not escape our reach. Hamas is already learning this in our determined action that will lead to its destruction and the release of all our hostages.” 
• Over the weekend, roughly 40 rockets were fired at the area of Kiryat Shmona and the Upper Galilee with no one injured and no damage caused. A drone that penetrated Israeli airspace exploded in Metulla before any air raid siren had sounded in the area. Two suspicious aerial targets were also identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory and falling in the northern Golan Heights.
• The IAF struck approximately 20 Hezbollah launchers and military infrastructure sites in Jarmaq in southern Lebanon which it said posed an immediate threat to Israeli civilians.
• In a phone conversation, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin the time for a diplomatic solution with Hezbollah on the northern border is passing.

Context: Several reports have claimed that Houthi forces have recently arrived in Syria as part of Iran’s preparations for a broad campaign against Israel, with estimates that there are currently several thousand fighters in the country. Some have been trained in operating drones and ballistic missiles. 

• A Syrian source told Israel I24 news that "Houthis from Iraq arrived in the south of the country - to open a new firing front - using drones against Israel."
• In late July, the Houthis hit a building in Tel Aviv with a drone, which led to Israel striking the Hodeidah Port in Yemen in retaliation, significantly damaging the Houthis’ weapons and capacity there.
• The Houthis have since vowed revenge and have tried to fire ballistic missiles at Eilat. All prior ballistic missiles from Yemen were shot down out of Israeli airspace.
• Since October 7, the Houthis have fired over 220 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at Israel as well as launching over 200 attacks on international vessels. The disruption to international shipping has significantly impacted several economies and caused major disruption to global trade especially that between Europe and Asia.
• The Houthis originated as a religious revival movement of Shia Zaydi Islam, a sect of Islam different to the Shi’ism in Iran and Lebanon. They started operating in the early 1990s from the northern province of Sadat that was marginalised by the central government and were radicalised after September 11 and the invasion by the US of Iraq in 2003.
• Comprising part of Iran’s regional axis that also includes Hezbollah and proxies in Syria and Iraq, the Houthis slogan is ‘Death to America, Death to Israel, Cursed be the Jews and Allahu Akhbar.’
• In response, the US formed a multi-nation coalition, including the UK, in mid-December, dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian. On 10 January 2024, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2722 (2024) which condemned the Houthi attacks, demanded they stop, affirmed the right to freedom of navigation, and reaffirmed the arms embargo in place against the Houthis. Also in January 2024, the U.S. State Department (re)designated the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group.
• With tension rising along the northern border, the security cabinet is scheduled to meet this afternoon. Unnamed security sources said that ‘Israel should prepare for long war’ in the north, as Hezbollah continues attacks.
• The security Cabinet is also expected to make return of tens of thousands of residents who were evacuated from their homes in the North an official war goal.
• There is also reportedly tension between PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant. Netanyahu reportedly wants to launch a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah, whereas Gallant supports exhausting the option of diplomatic talks in an attempt to reach a political resolution. The defense minister also believes that a military operation in Lebanon will undermine the chances of getting the hostages back because it will force the IDF to move troops that are now in the Gaza Strip to the north.
• According to Israel Hayom, the head of IDF Northern Command Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin recently recommended in closed-door meetings to authorize the IDF to seize a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon that would be under Israeli control.

Looking ahead: As the security cabinet discusses how best to push Hezbollah back from the border, US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, is scheduled to arrive in the region today in a bid to press ahead with American efforts to broker a political settlement that would help to calm the Israel - Lebanon border.