What happened: Late last night, the IDF began its incursion into southern Lebanon in what they are describing as “limited, localised and targeted raids against Hezbollah terror targets in the border area” in the latest phase of Operation Northern Arrows.

• In a statement released shortly before midnight BST, the IDF said that Hezbollah targets were “located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel” indicating an intent to remove its infrastructure along the Blue Line.
• The IDF has confirmed that the 98th Division which is comprised of airborne and commando units is participating in this incursion with the support of the 7th Armoured Brigade as well as aerial and artillery assets.
• Israeli airstrikes also targeted the Beirut suburb of Dahiya, which has long been known as a Hezbollah stronghold. The IDF has also advised Lebanese civilians to refrain from driving south of the Litani River until further notice.
• Inside Israel dozens of alerts were heard across northern Israel last night and this morning, with sirens also sounding in Tel Aviv and central Israel.
• Last night, the Lebanese Army announced that it was redeploying away from the border in a seeming indication of lacking intent to fight against Israel.
• Hezbollah has offered relatively little in the way of comment on this development, and instead claimed a number of rocket and artillery strikes on Israeli communities and military. Thus far, Hezbollah has still not confirmed or acknowledged Israel’s incursion.
• Explosions were also reported in Damascus last night which Syrian sources have attributed to the Israeli Air Force.
• The Yemeni Houthis have also claimed responsibility for drone attacks targeting Tel Aviv and Eilat. This claim follows reports that the Israeli Air Force intercepted and destroyed a drone flying over the eastern Mediterranean west of the Israeli coastline.
• Commenting on Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination and developing events Foreign Secretary David Lammy, said: “I don't mourn the death of the head of a proscribed terrorist organisation, but I do mourn the civilians who have lost their lives in the bloodshed over the last few days.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu made a rare video yesterday, directly addressed the Iranian people, emphasising that they were not the enemy, but as proven with the Israeli strike on Yemen on Sunday, the IDF is capable of reaching similar far-away targets. 

Context: The IDF appears to be working on a targeted ground operation focused on the Hezbollah infrastructure embedded within Lebanese villages close to the Israeli border.

• The ground incursion is the latest stage of a methodical process by the IDF to remove the threat of Hezbollah.   It follows the targeting of Hezbollah communications equipment and the strikes against Nasrallah and the senior command.
• For the last few weeks, Israel has called on civilians in south Lebanon located in close proximity to Hezbollah infrastructure to leave their homes so as to minimise any potential civilian casualties.
• Over the last two weeks Israel has carried out sustained strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure. Israeli officials now believe that a significant part of Hezbollah’s firepower has been destroyed (although it still retains some capabilities).
• Hezbollah is still thought to retain the capacity to launch attacks against Israel, although so far the group has only managed 100-150 rockets a day. This may be due to the breakdown of its command structure as well as the IDF successfully targeting rocket launcher sites.
• The Israel hope is that the initial targeting the Hezbollah’s senior commanders will sow doubt and uncertainty within the ranks of Hezbollah fighters.  
• For several years Hezbollah has publicly claimed it was preparing an assault to invade northern Israel. Such a threat could not be totally defeated by airpower alone, which is why a limited incursion was deemed
• necessary.      
• Ahead of the operation it was vital for Israel to reach an understanding with the US administration and Defence Minister Gallant and Secretary of Defence Austin have continued their ongoing close coordination.
• A readout from yesterday’s conversation between the two had the sides agreeing on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese Hezbollah cannot conduct an October 7-style attacks on Israel's northern communities. Austin also reaffirmed American support for Israel's right to defend itself against Iran and the Resistance Axis as well as emphasising that a diplomatic resolution is required to ensure that civilians can return safely to their homes on both sides of the border. The Biden Administration has consistently called for de-escalation.
• Psychologically, this is also an important moment, with the IDF publicly crossing the Blue Line for the first time since the end of the 2^nd Lebanon War in 2006. Over the years, while Hezbollah built up its elite Radwan forces close to the border, it did not expect Israel to initiate a ground incursion to take out the threat.

Looking ahead: The current military manoeuvres close to the border could last a few weeks. 

• It will then be determined if that is sufficient or if they will advance to pursue Hezbollah infrastructure a few kilometres deeper, or even up to Litani river. The decision will partly be based on results, how effective Israel can overcome booby trapped explosives and Hezbollah’s anti-tank missiles.
• Israel remains on the highest level of alert should Iran decide to attack Israel directly