Israel declares beginning of Operation Northern Arrows

What happened: Israel’s military offensive against Hezbollah has intensified over the last 24 hours.

• The IAF yesterday attacked roughly 1,600 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon with approximately 1,400 munitions in 650 separate sorties. Defence Minister Gallant highlighted the efficiency of this operation, where tens of thousands of rockets and missiles were destroyed.
• The IDF released footage showing multiple secondary explosions where Hezbollah stores munitions in Lebanese civilian homes. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said that in every house attacked there were weapons, rockets, missiles and drones that were intended for killing Israeli citizens.
• One of the last remaining senior Hezbollah commanders Ali Karaki was targeted on Monday, but initial unconfirmed reports suggest he was injured but not killed. The IDF used a smaller ordnance to target the room he was in, as opposed to collapsing the whole building out of concern for wider collateral damage.       
• Overall it was the deadliest attack on Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, with reports that 492 people were killed.
• Ahead of its widening air campaign against Hezbollah, the IDF warned residents in southern and eastern Lebanon to evacuate. So far, thousands of Lebanese left these areas.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said that the IDF struck “combat infrastructure that Hezbollah has been building for the past 20 years.” Halevi didn’t talk about the details of the next phases but explained that the focus of the operation is on creating the conditions to return the residents of the north to their homes.
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu posted a recorded message on Twitter in which he stressed that Israeli strikes are against Hezbollah rather than against Lebanese civilians. He also emphasised that Hezbollah is using the citizens as human shields and they should therefore leave their homes immediately.
• Hezbollah has continued to fire barrage of rockets to northern Israel. This morning Hezbollah fired 50 rockets to Kiryat Shmona, the Jezreel Valley and the Krayot area. Sirens were also heard in Afula – where 5 people were injured yesterday – as well as in Nazareth.
• Schools in the Jezreel Valley, the Carmel, and other cities in the area will remain closed today.
• Pentagon officials confirmed the US is sending additional troops to the Middle East.

Context: Israel is focused on targeting Hezbollah’s medium and long-range missiles before they can be fired on Israel’s home front.  According to military assessments they have successfully destroyed around half of Hezbollah’s capacity.

• This still leaves Hezbollah with tens of thousands missiles. This is why the Israeli government issued an unusual announcement on Monday night declaring a “special security situation” throughout the whole country.      
• Unlike the surprise attack by Hamas last October, the IDF have been anticipating and preparing for a conflict with Hezbollah for several years.
• The current wave of IDF attacks was planned 15 years ago under the direction of the former IAF commanders and continued to be refined under the leadership of current IAF Commander. Former IAF commander Norkin wrote in the “Strike Plan” that every strike should cause damage that exceeds the understandings “and the enemy’s expectations regarding the capabilities and determination of the IDF, while at the same time focusing on the formations essential to its performance and its victory strategy.”
• The IDF believes that Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been isolated, with nearly all members of his close circle killed, including, Ibrahim Aqil, head of operations and commander of the Radwan Force. Following the attack on beepers and walkie talkies, Israel also believe that Nasrallah’s ability to communicate is limited.
• In its attacks over the last week, Israel has seemingly successfully downgraded Hezbollah’s two main strategic threats; its arsenal of precision-guided missiles and the threat of invading the Galilee.
• US forces deployed to the region are once again focused as a force projection and aimed to serve as a deterrent against Iran and a wider regional conflict.
• On the diplomatic front US officials are reportedly urging Israel to avoid a ground incursion into Lebanon. Both Israeli and American officials hope that Israel’s use of military pressure will help to secure a diplomatic solution which will enable the return of citizens in both countries.

Looking ahead: Iran now faces a dilemma. It has helped to strengthen Hezbollah to act as a deterrent against an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. With Hezbollah now weakened, it raises the question as to whether Iran should get involved, or perhaps use its other proxies to attack Israel.

• If the Islamic Republic were to become involved, it would risk a significant Israeli reaction one that could also involve the US. If it doesn’t, it could see the weakening of a significant part of its strategic ring of fire around Israel.
• While Hezbollah’s military capacity has been downgraded, it still possesses long range missiles that can hit almost all of Israel. So far they have not fired on Tel Aviv as they understand this would trigger a powerful response on Beirut.