BICOM Background Briefing: Israel launches major pre-emptive operation on Hezbollah 

via BICom

Israel launches major pre-emptive operation on Hezbollah

What happened? Shortly before 5am this morning, based on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to launch missiles against central Israel, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah launchers.

• The IDF announced that about 100 fighter jets struck targets in various locations in southern Lebanon. Strikes were reported in the areas of Kunin, Beit Yahoun, Haddatha, Rachaf and A-Tiri among others.
• The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced that “Since 5:00, we have taken out thousands of launchers that were aimed at the north in a coordinated attack by roughly 100 IAF planes. We were prepared for a large Hezbollah strike on the north, and we also attacked Hezbollah drones accordingly.”
• Quoting Western intelligence, the New York Times reported that Israel's preemptive strike was aimed at launchers that planned to fire rockets at Tel Aviv at 5 am. Israel believes that the group planned to fire a small number of precision-guided missiles at the area of Glilot, which is where Mossad headquarters and IDF Unit 8200 (Israeli Intelligence Corps unit that focus on Signals Intelligence) are located.
• At approximately 5.30, Hezbollah began an assault on Israel. The group announced that it struck "deep in Zionist territory and towards a specific Israeli military target that will be announced later" detailing that it fired drones at a high-quality military target deep inside Israel amid simultaneous rocket fire on IDF bases and Iron Dome batteries in northern Israel.
• Hezbollah claims to have launched more than 320 rockets including at areas such as Safed and Acre, and at 11 military bases.
• According to the group, it has now “completed the first phase of the response to the [Shukr] assassination"
• The IDF reported most of the rockets Hezbollah launched were intercepted. One person in Acre is currently known to have been wounded by shrapnel and is listed as being in light condition.
• US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant " to discuss Israel's defense against Lebanese Hezbollah attacks," according to the Pentagon, "and reaffirmed the US' ironclad commitment to Israel's defense against any attacks by Iran and its regional partners and proxies."
• After being temporarily closed, Ben Gurion airport reopened at 7am.
• The Home Front Command has imposed restrictions on gatherings stretching from central Israel to the north. Up to 30 people can gather in an open area, and up to 300 in buildings. Beaches will be closed to the public.
• Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz this morning said: "Israel is confronting the axis of evil led by Iran, which has the explicit aim of destroying Israel. We do not seek a full-scale war - but we will do whatever it takes to protect our citizens."
• Foreign Minister Katz addressed dozens of foreign ministers around the world this morning, "calling on them to support Israel".

Context: Since Hamas’ assault against Israel on October 7 Hezbollah – an integral part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance against Israel – has fired over 6600 missiles at Israel.

• Over the past week, the group has escalated its strikes towards civilian communities on the Golan Heights, which have not been evacuated.
• On the 20^th August, Hezbollah fired 115 rockets and drones into Israel while a drone attack on the 19^th killed one Israeli soldier.
• Also last week, in the face of troop shortages and in preparation for potential escalation in the North, the IDF has called up approximately 15000 previously exempted and demobilised reservists.
• The current barrage is in response to Israel’s killing of senior Hezbollah operative Fuad Shukr (for more information see BICOM's recent report here).
• Defence Minister Gallant has been in almost daily contact with his US partner Defence Secretary Austin.  This is part of their close coordination which also includes substantial US troops deployed to the region as part of their force projection. 

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether a second round of missiles and drones will be launched by Hezbollah, and if so, the extent to which it will succeed in striking central Israel as reportedly planned.

• Such a strike could lead to wider escalation including Israeli strikes at Hezbollah targets in Beirut.
• Hezbollah maintains that Israel failed in its pre-emptive strike, and that it succeeded in hitting a significant Israeli site. Hassan Nasrallah is due to deliver a speech in which he will allegedly ‘refute Israel’s claim’ that it disrupted the group's attacks.
• US Air Force General Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who began an unannounced visit to the Middle East Saturday is currently in Jordan and will travel to Egypt and Israel in the coming days for military discussions.