Israeli government facing urgent security, diplomatic, and political challenges via BICom

What’s happening: The Israeli government is facing severe challenges on multiple fronts – security, diplomatic, and political.

Security – the north: Hezbollah leader Nasrallah yesterday gave a speech in which he warned that if Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah escalated to the point of all-out war, “no place” in Israel would be spared in a war with “no rules” and “no ceilings”.

• “The enemy knows well that we have prepared ourselves for the worst… and that no place… will be spared our rockets.”
• Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus, saying “opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war.”
• Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides responded by insisting that Cyprus was not a party to the conflict, and was part of the solution, not the problem, of escalation on Israel’s northern front.
• With conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the north ratcheting up, Defence Minister Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Halevi yesterday held an operational situation assessment at the IDF’s Northern Command, together with the Head of the Northern Command and Commander of the Israeli Air Force.
• In public remarks, Gallant said “We are achieving readiness on land and in the air, strengthening our intelligence systems and preparing for every scenario. We must all remember that Hezbollah started a war against us on October 8th, a day after Hamas [attacked Israel], and since then, it has not stopped [attacking Israel]. We have an obligation to change the situation in the north, and to ensure the safe return of our citizens to their homes, and we will find a way to achieve this.”
• Visiting a northern aerial defence array, Halevi said “We of course have infinitely greater capabilities” than Hezbollah, “of which I think the enemy is only familiar with a few of them and will confront them at the right time… our test is to see that today we defend, tomorrow we win, the day after tomorrow we return the residents to a much safer reality, and with them, we also build and restore and make this beautiful area stronger than it was before the war.”

Security – Gaza: IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari yesterday gave a statement appearing to contradict the official Israeli war aim of the total defeat of Hamas.

• “To tell the public that there won’t be any terrorism in Gaza” after an Israeli victory, he said, “that there won’t be military operatives, that there won’t be a [single] rocket, that there won’t be a [single] armed man—is a lie. There will be terrorism in Gaza. Hamas is an idea. To replace the people who are dealing with civilian services, the people who are distributing food or stealing the food, something else needs to be created that might grow. That is a decision for the political leadership, and the military will enact.”
• The IDF continues operations in all parts of the Strip, with particular emphasis on Rafah, where “precise operations” continue to target the remaining two Hamas battalions in the city.
• Hagari’s comments indicate the IDF’s concurrence with the demand from Israel’s allies that it give urgent consideration to the question of the ‘day after’ the war, and to a non-Hamas civilian administration able to both combat Hamas’s return and provide for the needs of the civilian population.
• The US continues to push for a reformed Palestinian Authority playing a significant role in Gaza, though Netanyahu has continued to insist that Israel will not substitute ‘Hamastan’ for ‘Fatahstan’.
• Meanwhile, based on its successes in degrading Hamas capabilities, the IDF has decided to lift restrictions on Israeli communities in the Gaza periphery. Schools, businesses and factories, agricultural activity and public events, concerts and cultural activity and tourism will all return to something like normal.

Diplomatic – Israel-US: The fallout continues from Netanyahu’s public comments earlier this week accusing the US of withholding vital military aid from Israel.

• The White House responded with incredulity, saying that aside from one shipment of 2,000-pound bombs which had been suspended due to concerns over the weapons’ use in Rafah, it “genuinely [did] not know what he’s talking about.”
• The US then cancelled a high-level meeting set to cover both Iran and Israel’s operation in Rafah, leaving Minister Ron Dermer, a close Netanyahu confidante, and National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi to travel to Washington without the most important element of their trip taking place.
• Israeli media reports today that Netanyahu’s broadside reflected a split between him and Dermer, on the one hand, and Gallant and Halevi on the other. The prime minister and Dermer seemingly concluded that the best way to extract greater support from Washington was by means of a public demand.

Political – domestic turmoil: Following the pulling from the Knesset of the so-called ‘Rabbis’ Bill’ on Tuesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) are now said to be pushing for early elections.

• The Constitution, Law and Justice Committee and the Knesset plenum had been set to debate the bill, which provides for the creation of hundreds of jobs for municipal rabbis, and is seen as a personal priority of Shas leader Aryeh Deri.
• However, the bill faced significant opposition from within Netanyahu’s own Likud party. On Tuesday, Likud MKs Tally Gotliv and Moshe Saada were removed from the committee on the prime minister’s orders. There then followed an intervention from a number of Likud mayors opposed to the bill. Seeing the levels of Likud opposition to the bill, Netanyahu shelved its parliamentary debate.
• Meanwhile, Netanyahu yesterday traded blows with his National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, whom he accused of leaking state secrets.
• Netanyahu released a video in which he said “I demand of all the coalition partners—get a hold of yourselves. Rise to the enormity of the occasion. Now isn’t the time for petty politics. Now isn’t the time for legislation that jeopardises the coalition that is fighting for victory over our enemies.”
• The failure to progress the Rabbis’ Bill has seemingly persuaded the ultra-Orthodox parties that this government is incapable of achieving its grand prize of a bill to formalise the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from being drafted into the IDF.
• The rebellion of Gotliv and Saada, together with the successful interventions of the Likud mayors, illustrates that Netanyahu no longer enjoys the command of his own party for which he has always been renowned.
• Economy Minister Nir Barkat, thought likely to challenge Netanyahu for the Likud leadership in the near future, has also sought to challenge the prime minister by announcing his opposition to the military draft bill as currently formulated.
• The Rabbis’ bill had first been shelved earlier in the year due to opposition from Benny Gantz and Gideon Saar. It was re-introduced after first Saar and then Gantz left the government.
• The Supreme Court blocked Deri’s appointment as a minister early in the tenure of the current government, on the grounds of his previous criminal convictions and an agreement he made as part of plea bargains not to seek high office again. He has since been included in the government as an observer, and continued to wield significant influence.
• Ben Gvir has long sought inclusion in the highest circles of decision-making on the war in Gaza. Before Netanyahu announced the dissolution of the war cabinet last week, the Jewish Power leader had pushed for a seat at the table.

Looking ahead: US envoy Amos Hochstein remains in the region to try to achieve a diplomatic resolution to increasingly intense cross-border fighting the US fears might develop into an all-out regional war.

• US and French efforts over the last eight months have so far failed to produce a breakthrough. 80,000 northern Israelis remain displaced, and Israel insists it will be forced to proceed with further operations, possibly including a ground invasion, to resecure the northern front.
• The Knesset’s summer session is set to end on July 24^th, until which time Netanyahu will seek to maintain his coalition.
• Early next week, Gallant and Defence Ministry Director General Maj. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir are scheduled to travel to the US for talks on military aid.