Latest diplomatic efforts to avoid all-out war via BICom

Israel-Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein spent yesterday in Israel meeting senior officials including the prime minister, defence minister and the president. 

• He came to lead Washington’s latest effort to reduce tension and prevent further escalation between Israel and Hezbollah on the northern border.
• Hochstein, who previously brokered the 2022 maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon, is thought to have communicated the Biden Administration’s desire for immediate de-escalation to prevent what it fears could become an all-out regional war.
• After a period of daily multi-location attacks, Hezbollah has not fired on Israel since Saturday afternoon, likely due to the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha.
• Israel has continued targeting  senior Hezbollah operatives.  Yesterday, Hezbollah announced the death of a senior commander Muhammad Mustafa Ayoub in an Israeli strike. The IDF called Ayoub "a key operative in the Rocket and Missile Department of Hezbollah's Nasser Unit."

Exchange of messages:  The US position appears to still hopeful for a hostage deal, that a ceasefire in the south will also then apply in the north.

• This was the situation during the week long hostage deal in November.
• For the US, the key is to first complete the fighting in Rafah.  
• As a second option, Hochstein is looking to make a distinction between the fighting in the south and the fighting in the north and to reach an agreement to avoid all-out war.
• It is understood that officials told Hochstein in their meetings that the fighting in Rafah was drawing near to a close in the next few weeks.
• Israel is open to a negotiated solution, but time is running out and that it will not hesitate to use further military force to allow for a return to conditions which would allow the nearly 80,000 displaced northern Israelis to return to their homes.
• According to Channel 12 News Israel passed on a message for Hochstein to deliver in Lebanon: “We are approaching the moment of a decisive defeat (for Hamas). Ending the fighting in Rafah will impact the entire region. Either Hezbollah will hold its fire in an arrangement, or Israel will be compelled to attain security for the residents of northern Israel even at the price of war.”

Looking ahead: Today Hochstein will be meeting senior Lebanese officials in Beirut.