Operation Northern Arrows enters fourth day

What happened: The IDF has continued to hit Hezbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon. 

• Overnight the IAF struck approximately 75 targets belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, including infrastructure, weapons storage facilities, ready-to-fire launchers and operatives.
• On Wednesday it struck 60 targets belonging to Hezbollah's intelligence directorate. The strikes destroyed intelligence-gathering tools, command centers, and additional infrastructure.
• Israel’s UN envoy Danny Danon, told the UN Security Council said that his country did not seek a full-scale war, and that Iran was the “driving force” behind the instability sweeping the Middle East.
• This morning reports have emerged that the US and France have presented an initiative for a three week ceasefire on the Israel-Lebanon border. US President Biden and France President Macron said they had worked on a temporary ceasefire “to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalations across the border.”
• The two leaders released a joint statement which was also endorsed by the UK, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
• However according to the Israeli Prime Minister's Office, “the news about a cease-fire is incorrect. It is an American-French proposal, to which the prime minister has not responded.”
• Meanwhile, a barrage of 45 rockets was launched at Acre this morning and residents in the Golan, Upper Galilee, and Kiryat Shmona, were instructed to stay near bomb shelters. Yesterday two people were injured in a rocket strike in Kibbutz Saar while trying to reach cover when Hezbollah’s projectile hit.
• In Lebanon there are reports of 47 fatalities overnight, although it is not yet clear how many were Hezbollah operatives or civilians.      
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella organisation of Iran-backed militias in the country, claimed responsibility for launching two drones towards Eilat yesterday. One landed in the city, lightly wounding two people.
• Also a UAV approaching Israeli territory from Syria was intercepted by IDF fighter jets south of the Sea of Galilee. No damage or injuries were reported.
• On Wednesday the IDF announced the mobilisation of two additional reserve brigades of infantry and tanks. The brigades are integrated armored-infantry brigades that will increase the defensive operations in the Galilee Division, as well as participating in a ground invasion of Lebanon if one begins.

Context: Israel has continued to degrade Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in air strikes, whilst threatening the possibility of a ground incursion.   

• The potential ceasefire could include both Hamas and Hezbollah agreeing to stop the fighting, whilst Israel will pause its aerial campaign.      
• An Israeli official said Netanyahu has agreed to pursue a possible deal raised by the US and France, but only if it includes the return of Israeli civilians to their homes.
• Part of the challenge of agreeing a deal is Hezbollah’s insistence of continuing fire until a ceasefire is agreed between Israel and Hamas, the chances of which have declined in recent weeks (with Hamas leader Sinwar apparently incommunicado).
• Last week, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah showed little interest in a ceasefire saying he hoped Israeli troops would enter southern Lebanon because that would create a “historic opportunity.” He added that “No military escalation, killing, assassinations or all-out war would return Israeli residents to the border area.”
• Israel faces a dilemma: On the one hand, it is in favour of a diplomatic solution that will allow for the safe return of the northern residents. However others feel now is the time to press home their military advantage and significantly downgrade Hezbollah’s military capacity.
• Northern Israel regional council officials have said that ceasefire will cause loss of momentum, as Israel must push the Radwan Force and Hezbollah squads towards the Litani River.
• One option could be to go for a shorter one week cessation to test Hezbollah’s true intentions.
• At this stage the IDF is operating in Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah operatives and infrastructures and put pressure on the organisation. At the same time, the IDF is preparing for a ground incursion into Lebanon.
• Israel continues to face a multi-front war from Iranian proxies.
• Iran has so far refrained from directly intervening in the northern front with its supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei insisting that Hezbollah still stands strong despite losing some of its top commanders to Israeli strikes.
• At the same time, Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq have threatened that if Israel expands the war against Hezbollah, they will renew their attacks on US interests in Iraq, Syria and throughout the region.
• The last time the Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched a drone at Eilat was April 2024. The militias have expressed their willingness to aid Hezbollah in various ways, including by dispatching soldiers and arms to South Lebanon to help in the fight against Israel, and by escalating their drone and missile attacks.

Looking ahead: As Prime Minister Netanyahu prepares to address the UN General Assembly tomorrow Israel is under international pressure to accept the cease-fire deal in Gaza and Lebanon.

• Israeli officials stress that there is no reassurance that Hezbollah will respect the deal and withdraw from the areas near the border with Israel.
• US Secretary of State Blinken and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer are expected to meet again today and discuss the ceasefire proposal.