Operation Rising Lion: Israel vs Iran War 2025 Background

Background & Roots of the Conflict

The modern conflict between Iran and Israel dates back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Iran transformed from a monarchy with strategic ties to Israel into a theocratic republic guided by Ayatollah Khomeini’s ideology. The new regime saw Israel as illegitimate and framed its foreign policy around supporting the Palestinian cause and confronting Israel.

Iran ceased all diplomatic recognition of Israel, instead referring to it as the “Zionist regime.” Since then, the Islamic Republic has ideologically, diplomatically, and militarily openly opposed Israel’s existence and developed a long-term strategy of confrontation through proxy regional actors, political subversion, and military buildup including directly in neighbouring countries during the Syrian civil war.

Iran’s military strategy avoids direct warfare with superior powers like Israel or the US. Instead, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force arm a network of non-state actors or proxies, under the umbrella of the “Axis of Resistance.” Key proxies include:

• Hezbollah in Lebanon: Iran’s most advanced proxy, previously reported to have over 150,000 rockets aimed at Israel.

• Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza: recipients of training, weapons, and funding.

• Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria: used to attack Israeli, US, and allied interests.

• The Houthis in Yemen: long-range drone and missile attacks on Israel since 2023.

These groups act independently but with coordination, training and funding, allowing Iran to challenge Israel without triggering full-scale war.

Iran’s leaders frequently refer to Israel as a “cancerous tumor” that must be “removed.” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has repeatedly predicted that Israel “will not exist in 25 years.” State media and schoolbooks amplify this vision, and Quds Day which is an annual state-sanctioned anti-Israel event which often features banners depicting Israel's destruction.

This rhetoric is not merely symbolic. It underpins Tehran’s military planning and foreign policy, where weakening or eliminating Israel remains a declared long-term goal.

Iran’s Capability to Destroy or Significantly Harm Israel

Iran does not currently possess the military means to destroy Israel, but it can cause significant damage:

• Ballistic Missiles: Iran’s arsenal includes Shahab, Emad, and Khoramshahr missiles capable of reaching any part of Israel.

• Drones: Iran has developed advanced UAVs (e.g. Shahed-136) used in Ukraine, Syria, and against Israel.

• Cyber: Iranian hackers have targeted Israeli infrastructure and private entities.

• Nuclear: Iran has enriched uranium close to weapons-grade but denies seeking nuclear arms.

• Terror: Through proxies, Iran can initiate mass-casualty attacks and psychological warfare against civilians.

Timeline of Israel–Iran Escalations

• 1980s–90s: Iranian backing of Hezbollah's rise in Lebanon; multiple attacks on Israeli targets
around the world.
• 2006: Second Lebanon War between Israel and Hezbollah.
• 2010: Start of cyber and covert warfare, Israel's alleged role in Stuxnet, assassinations of
Iranian nuclear scientists.
• 2018–2021: Frequent Israeli airstrikes in Syria on Iranian weapons transfers.
• 2021: Iran’s maritime attacks on Israeli-linked ships in the Gulf.
• 2022: Foiled Iranian plots in Europe and Turkey targeting Israeli civilians.
• October 7, 2023: Hamas massacre in Israel. Iran praises but denies direct involvement.
• April 13, 2024: First-ever direct Iranian missile and drone strike on Israeli territory.
• June 2025: Major escalation with mutual direct strikes on military and strategic sites.

After Hamas’s massacre of over 1,200 Israelis, Iran’s proxy groups dramatically increased their
operations:

• Hezbollah launched daily cross-border attacks.
• The Houthis fired drones and missiles at Israel.
• Militias in Iraq and Syria targeted US bases and attempted attacks on Israel.
• Iran stepped up weapons smuggling to Gaza and the West Bank.

Israel, in turn, intensified strikes on Iranian targets in Syria and reportedly expanded operations
inside Iran.

• June 13, 2025: Israel conducted deep strikes on Iranian nuclear and IRGC sites near Isfahan and Bandar Abbas. Satellite imagery shows significant damage.

• June 14, 2025: Iran responded with “Operation True Promise III”, launching over 250 drones and ballistic missiles at Israeli targets.

o Most were intercepted by Israeli, US, and Jordanian systems.
o A handful struck Negev and northern airbases.
o Regional airports and embassies activated emergency protocols.

This marks the highest level of direct hostilities between the two countries in history.

Examples of Global Iranian-Backed Attacks against Israel

Successful Attacks:

• 1992: Israeli embassy bombing, Buenos Aires — 29 killed.
• 1994: AMIA Jewish Center bombing, Buenos Aires — 85 killed.
• 2012: Burgas, Bulgaria — Hezbollah suicide bomber killed 5 Israeli tourists.
• 2000s–2020s: Multiple attacks in Iraq and Syria on Israeli-affiliated sites.

Foiled/Failed Plots:

• 2011–2012: Plots against Israeli diplomats in Thailand, India, Georgia.
• 2022: Mossad foils Iranian plot to assassinate Israelis in Turkey.
• 2023: Arrests in Germany, UK, and Greece of IRGC-linked agents planning to bomb Jewish
institutions.
• 2024–2025: Cells uncovered in Colombia, Cyprus, and Kenya.

Arieh Miller