Second day of Hezbollah device detonations

What’s happened: At least twenty Hezbollah members have been killed and hundreds injured after two-way radios, solar panels, and fingerprint reading devices used by the group detonated.

• A wave of explosions were reported across Lebanon yesterday afternoon as electronic devices (predominantly two-way radios) detonated, including at the funerals of Hezbollah members killed in Tuesday’s attacks. 
• Hezbollah confirmed the deaths of twenty operatives in the blasts, along with twelve from the day before. While these figures have been corroborated by the Lebanese health ministry, Israel believes the death toll to be higher, with Hezbollah’s special operations Radwan unit hit hard by the two days of explosions.
• Israel is again widely believed to be responsible for this attack, but has offered no comment on the incident or mentioned it in any government statements.
• Although Hezbollah have initially responded with a barrage of rocket and anti-tank missiles with eight Israelis wounded Thursday morning. 
• Iran has condemned the “criminal explosion”, and threatened to retaliate against Israel after its Ambassador to Lebanon was injured by his pager exploding yesterday.
• The New York Times reports that the Hungarian firm which reportedly manufactured the pagers was a shell company established by Israeli intelligence officers.
• Visiting an Israeli Air Force base, Defence Minister Gallant asserted that Israel was initiating a “new phase” of the war with a greater focus on the Lebanese border and countering Hezbollah’s threat. Gallant stressed that Israel’s war aims were “clear and simple: to return the residents of the towns in the north to their homes safely”.
• This speech came as it was announced that the IDF was in the process of redeploying the 98th Division from the Gaza Strip to the Lebanese border. 
• A senior Israeli official told Ynet that if Hezbollah chief Nasrallah accepts an American de-escalation proposal, it could prevent what appears to be a descent towards all-out war.
• The Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, has also announced that it foiled an Iranian attempt to assassinate the Prime Minister, Defence Minister and former PM Bennett. An unnamed Jewish Israeli citizen was recruited in Turkey, smuggled into Iran for at least two visits, and was paid to carry out his mission. The Shin Bet says the assassination plans were seen by the Iranian officials as revenge for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Context: The detonations in Beirut came a day after widespread pager explosions across Lebanon and Syria which injured approximately 3000 Hezbollah operatives and following Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant’s announcement that the IDF was diverting resources to the northern border in a “new phase” of the war. 

• Whereas Israel was surprised by the Hamas attack on October 7, it has long prepared for a war with Hezbollah in the north, with the explosions in Lebanon a spectacular example of Israeli military and intelligence planning. 
• At the same time, while the attacks are undoubtedly a tactical success – in injuring thousands of Hezbollah operatives, requiring the organisation to re-evaluate its communications network, and striking a psychological blow – it remains to be seen whether it will have strategic affect in helping to return 80,000 northern residents to their homes. 
• Indeed, an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah remains a distinct possibility.
• Comprised of airborne and commando brigades, the 98thDivision’s northern deployment is a strong indication of that front’s current seriousness and priority to the Israeli security establishment. The Division has an important role in the IDF plan for a ground operation in the mountain ranges that overlook southern Lebanon.
• Such an operation is considered critical for clearing the underground infrastructure that Hezbollah in the area. 

Looking ahead:  With Nasrallah due to deliver a speech this afternoon, the US has said that it does not want to see further escalation, and reiterated that it was not aware of the sabotage operation leading to a second wave of detonating devices before it happened.

• At the request of Algeria, the United Nations Security Council is scheduled to meet tomorrow. The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has warned that the pager blasts indicate “a serious risk of a dramatic escalation in Lebanon and everything must be done to avoid that escalation”.